Predicting the 2018 Oscars
Best Picture
Call Me by Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Aren: This is another year where I like most of the nominees a fair bit. That being the case, of course the one film I dislike is the one that’ll likely win. The Shape of Water took home the Producers Guild Award, the Directors Guild Award, and the Golden Globe. Expect it to take home the Oscar as well, although Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri needs only a coin flip to swoop in and steal the prize. Also, don’t ignore Get Out as the dark horse candidate. Sadly, Dunkirk ought to be the frontrunner, but it’s already been relegated to also-ran status. It or Phantom Thread should be the winner in a just world.
Will Win: The Shape of Water
Should Win: Dunkirk
Anders: I’ve liked the films I’ve seen, and I even liked The Shape of Water a bit more than Aren did. That said, I think it’s weaker than a good number of these films, especially Phantom Thread and Dunkirk. Yet, it is likely to be another example of an artist winning an award not for their best film (for del Toro, that would be Pan’s Labyrinth), but for a film that rightly or wrongly is seen as a statement on “the times we live in.” I’d rather see Get Out win if we’re going to go that route. But in my mind, Phantom Thread is the film of the year.
Will Win: The Shape of Water
Should Win: Phantom Thread
Best Actor
Timothee Chalamet for Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis for Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya for Get Out
Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington for Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Aren: Gary Oldman is a popular, veteran actor playing a popular historical figure in a widely-respected British war biopic. There’s no way Oldman isn’t taking home his first trophy for this. Timothee Chalamet ought to be the challenger, but he hasn’t won much of anything throughout the awards season. Daniel Day-Lewis is the best of the bunch here and ought to win a fourth Best Actor trophy. However, considering all the great leading male performances this year, this is a sad lot of nominees. Where is Robert Pattinson for Good Time?
Will Win: Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour
Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis for Phantom Thread
Anders: Yup, I also strongly suspect that Oldman will finally get his Oscar for Darkest Hour, becoming the latest in a long line of respected actors winning for playing famous historical figures. I could see Chalamet being a dark horse if he weren’t so young. Men win their Best Actor Oscars historically much later than women; 22 year old Chalamet would be the youngest to do so by a mile, with the only twenty-something to ever win Best Actor being Adrien Brody for The Pianist (at 29 years old!). I’d say Kaluuya’s nomination is kind of like a win here, in a rare nod for work in a genre pic. I concur with Aren on puzzling over Pattinson’s exclusion. Personally, I think Daniel Day-Lewis capped his career as our greatest living actor in Phantom Thread, even if he hardly needs another trophy to confirm that.
Will Win: Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour
Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis for Phantom thread
Best Actress
Sally Hawkins for The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand for Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie for I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan for Lady Bird
Meryl Streep for The Post
Aren: Not a bad lot of nominees, but once against the best performer of the year is left off the ballot (Kristen Stewart for Personal Shopper). Frances McDormand has swept up most of the major awards so far for her performance as the grieving, angry mom at the centre of Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri, so expect her to win her second Best Actress Oscar on Sunday. I’d also be fine with Saoirse Ronan winning as she once again proves she’s one of the best actresses we’ve got in her performance in Lady Bird. However, I’d like to see Margot Robbie win it for managing a massive work of pop culture rehabilitation in I, Tonya. She makes Tonya Harding a completely sympathetic individual, even if we don’t end up liking her all that much.
Will Win: Frances McDormand for Three Billboards outside Ebbing Missouri
Should Win: Margot Robbie for I, Tonya
Anders: I’d go to the bat harder than Aren for Saoirse Ronan, as she makes Lady Bird work. After her nomination two years ago for Brooklyn, and acclaimed work in the films of Joe Wright, I wouldn’t be surprised if she managed to top McDormand in this category, though I suspect the award is McDormand’s.
Will Win: Frances McDormand for Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Should Win: Saoirse Ronan for Lady Bird
Best Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe for The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson for Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins for The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer for All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell for Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Aren: A pretty decent lot of nominees, but again, all my favourite performances are absent. For having such a showy role and for winning the lion’s share of awards so far this year, Sam Rockwell will likely walk off with the top prize. For what it’s worth, he’s good in the film, even if he elevates some shaky writing. I haven’t seen Dafoe’s work in The Florida Project, but I’d be happy to see him win as he’s such an excellent actor who’s usually ignored for these types of things.
Will Win: Sam Rockwell for Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Should Win: Sam Rockwell for Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Anders: Since Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri is one of the nominees I have yet to see, I can’t really speak to this category. I suspect Rockwell will win. I’d be happy to see Dafoe win for a long career, but I have yet to catch The Florida Project. Sadly, Richard Jenkins has done much better work than he did in a fairly rote version of a sympathetic character in The Shape of Water. I’ll abstain on a recommendation in this category.
Will Win: Sam Rockwell for Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Supporting Actress
Mary J. Blige for Mudbound
Allison Janney for I, Tonya
Lesley Manville for Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf for Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer for The Shape of Water
Aren: Allison Janney has won every major precursor award for her role as the awful mom to Tonya Harding in I, Tonya, so expect her to take the top prize on Oscar night as well. The only possible upset here is Laurie Metcalf as the stubborn, hard-loving mom in Lady Bird if people decide she is the best way to reward Gerwig’s film, which will likely be shut out of the major categories. I’d like to see Lesley Manville win for her role as Cyril in Phantom Thread. She makes a character who could easily be a cheap villain into a fascinating, sympathetic stage manager-of-sorts.
Will Win: Allison Janney for I, Tonya
Should Win: Lesley Manville for Phantom Thread
Anders: Janney has won pretty consistently in this category (in one of these performances I haven’t seen), so I’m guessing this will continue on Sunday night. I would like to see Laurie Metcalf win this one for her fantastic turn as the title character’s mother in Lady Bird. I’d be fine with Manville winning, as she’s also great in Phantom Thread.
Will Win: Allison Janney for I, Tonya
Should Win: Laurie Metcalf for Lady Bird
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson for Phantom Thread
Greta Gerwig for Lady Bird
Christopher Nolan for Dunkirk
Jordan Peele for Get Out
Guillermo del Toro for The Shape of Water
Aren: I like Guillermo del Toro, but I don’t like his film. That the industry has coalesced around his worst film (aside from Mimic) and seem keen to celebrate it as the best movie of the year baffles me. Certainly, del Toro works his usual magic when it comes to atmosphere and production design; the film is carefully made at the least. But he bludgeons other scenes to death with a hammer, pushing actors like Michael Shannon into mockery, and never allowing the subtext to command a scene. Compare his work to Christopher Nolan, who manages a towering achievement on a grand scale, juggles together simultaneous timelines, and manages to coax wonderful performances out of actors who don’t have many words to rely on. Dunkirk is an achievement in direction, primarily. The Shape of Water is a triumph of design, if nothing else. That the Academy seems adamant to reward the latter and not the former is disappointing.
Will Win: Guillermo del Toro for The Shape of Water
Should Win: Christopher Nolan for Dunkirk
Anders: I said in my Letterboxd review of The Shape of Water, that this film “never met a subtext it didn't want to make into an explicit part of the text.” And, by extension neither does del Toro here. I love del Toro and his earnest love of genre cinema, so it’s painful for me to see him win for a film that never trusts its viewers, neither with a hint of ambiguity, nor with believing that a genre mashup could be serious cinema without leaning into the political allegory. I’d rather see Christopher Nolan win for managing to bring Dunkirk to the screen in stunning fashion. I’d be fine with Paul Thomas Anderson win for Phantom Thread as it is nearly as stunning in its conjuring of cinematic history.
Will Win: Guillermo del Toro for The Shape of Water
Should Win: Christopher Nolan for Dunkirk
Best Original Screenplay
The Big Sick by Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani
Get Out by Jordan Peele
Lady Bird by Greta Gerwig
The Shape of Water by Vanessa Taylor and Guillermo del Toro
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri by Martin McDonagh
Aren: Get Out needs to win a major award and this is the most likely one it’ll go home with. It won the WGA Award and would give Jordan Peele the podium when he’s unlikely to win Best Director. Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri has a chance to win this as it wasn’t eligible for the WGA and many voters are passionate about McDonagh’s highly-structured writing and dialogue. I enjoy Greta Gerwig’s work on Lady Bird as well as Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani’s script for The Big Sick, but Get Out is the most deft work here.
Will Win: Get Out by Jordan Peele
Should Win: Get Out by Jordan Peele
Anders: I think this is the one of awards that could definitely go to Jordan Peele for Get Out, but also equally to Greta Gerwig for Lady Bird. It depends how much the Academy fell for Gerwig’s film, and if it can score both a screenplay and actor win. I’d be happy with Get Out winning here, but I won’t complain if it goes to Gerwig as I’m going to hedge that it does.
Will Win: Lady Bird by Greta Gerwig
Should Win: Get Out by Jordan Peele.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Call Me by Your Name by James Ivory
The Disaster Artist by Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber
Logan by Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green
Molly’s Game by Aaron Sorkin
Mudbound by Virgil Williams and Dee Rees
Aren: James Ivory has never won an Oscar, despite being a significant figure in prestige drama for several decades. That’s likely to change on Sunday night when Ivory, at 89, finally wins for penning the adaptation of Call Me by Your Name. It’s a fine script, one that balances between the sort of chamber drama that Ivory is known for as well the sort of aesthetic reveries that director Luca Guadagnino loves to conjure up. I won’t be disappointed if Ivory wins, but I’d give the award to Virgil Williams and Dee Rees for their remarkable work on Mudbound. Their script shows a canny ability to balance perspectives while also highlighting the historical tensions that define the work.
Will Win: Call Me by Your Name by James Ivory
Should Win: Mudbound by Virgil Williams and Dee Rees
Anders: I’m shocked that Ivory has never won, and that tips me in thinking he will indeed win. I too would give the award to Virgil Williams and Dee Rees for Mudbound, which leaves me still stunned a couple months after watching it for the way it manages to weave the various stories and for creating a streamlined work out of a longer novel. I do want to point out that Logan’s nod for a comic book adaptation is a big honour for the film in its genre, even if I didn’t love it myself.
Will Win: Call Me by Your Name by James Ivory
Should Win: Mudbound by Virgil Williams and Dee Rees
Best Cinematography
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Shape of Water
Aren: The curse of Roger Deakins is so powerful that I may be wrong here, but I do think it’s time that the widely-celebrated greatest cinematographer in the world finally wins a gold statuette. His work in Blade Runner 2049 is astonishing, utilizing colour and scale in ways that are breathtaking. That being said, I would not be surprised if Dan Laustsen pulls an upset here for his work on The Shape of Water, as a sweep might bring the film extra awards in minor categories. I’d be happy if Hoyte van Hoytema won for his incredible IMAX canvasses in Dunkirk.
Will Win: Blade Runner 2049
Should Win: Blade Runner 2049
Anders: Yeah, I’m really rooting for Deakins here, as Blade Runner 2049 is stunning and Deakins is long overdue. I’d love to see him win here. Hoyte van Hoytema is emerging as a DP of note and we have our first ever woman nominated in this category with Rachel Morrison’s excellent work for Mudbound. It’s funny that the notable look of Phantom Thread was a achieved without a credited cinematographer! The film’s visual elements were achieved with director Anderson working in collaboration with his other crew and Anderson opted not to credit himself in acknowledgement of the team effort.
Will Win: Blade Runner 2049
Should Win: Blade Runner 2049
Best Costume Design
Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria and Abdul
Aren: Phantom Thread has won most of the precursor awards, which makes sense as the entire narrative centres on a dressmaker. The dresses here are fabulous and although I could see the Academy reward The Shape of Water in the case of a sweep, it seems likely that they bestow a solitary Oscar on Phantom Thread for its exceptional costuming. If the dresses featured in this film weren’t marvellous, the film would not work.
Will Win: Phantom Thread
Should Win: Phantom Thread
Anders: I agree that this should be the category we end up seeing Phantom Thread win something, and deservedly so!
Will Win: Phantom Thread
Should Win: Phantom Thread
Best Sound Mixing
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Aren: War movies often win this category and I don’t see that changing this year as Dunkirk seems the obvious winner. Anyone who saw the movie in IMAX can attest to how overwhelming the sound mix is. You’d think actual spitfires were zipping overhead. In fact, Dunkirk might be the loudest movie ever. Its overwhelming sound design is essential to its visceral mode of storytelling.
Will Win: Dunkirk
Should Win: Dunkirk
Anders: I agree. Dunkirk’s sound mix is astonishing and nearly overwhelming. It should win here in a category, like with many other Oscar categories, where best is more.
Will Win: Dunkirk
Should Win: Dunkirk
Best Sound Editing
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Aren: There have been splits in this category in recent years, but I think it’s likely that the Dunkirk team take home both awards for their incredible work.
Will Win: Dunkirk
Should Win: Dunkirk
Anders: I agree that creating and capturing the sound for Dunkirk must have been a truly rewarding experience for the crew under Nolan, a director known for wanting to inject a sense of verisimilitude into his films. I think it will get it.
Will Win: Dunkirk
Should Win: Dunkirk
Best Editing
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
I, Tonya
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Aren: The likely Best Picture winners The Shape of Water and Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri could win here as indication of a sweep, but I think it’s likely that Dunkirk is rewarded for its meticulous jumping between several timelines. Dunkirk is a staggering achievement in parallel editing and one of the most-nominated films overall, so it makes sense that this would be one of its main takeaway awards at the end of the night.
Will Win: Dunkirk
Should Win: Dunkirk
Anders: I agree that this could go to either of the Best Picture frontrunners, but usually the winner needs only a nomination, not a win. I agree that Dunkirk certainly deserves it here, for all the reasons you mention. A not-entirely-surprising result could also be Baby Driver winning for its editing the car chase heist film like a musical.
Will Win: Dunkirk
Should Win: Dunkirk
Best Visual Effects
Blade Runner 2049
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Kong: Skull Island
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes
Aren: Conventional wisdom says that War for the Planet of the Apes will win for its realistic monkey effects. However, conventional wisdom has robbed its two predecessors of Oscars in favour of smaller and more idiosyncratic fare. That’s why I’m thinking Blade Runner 2049 wins here. The special effects are not as splashy and the film is well-admired, especially by the technical Academy members, so I could see them give it another award here.
Will Win: Blade Runner 2049
Should Win: Blade Runner 2049
Anders: Yes, War for the Planet of the Apes could win, but I think that Blade Runner 2049 and Star Wars: The Last Jedi are clearly the more impressive works. Blade Runner 2049 however is a practically flawless work of digital visual effects work, blending with Roger Deakins’ cinematography to create a whole world.
Will Win: Blade Runner 2049
Should Win: Blade Runner 2049
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Darkest Hour
Victoria and Abdul
Wonder
Aren: Did you see what they did to Gary Oldman’s face to make him look like Winston Churchill? It’ll win.
Will Win: Darkest Hour
Anders: Yup. Winston Churchill doesn’t look much like Gary Oldman, but in this film Oldman disappears under the makeup and Churchill’s face is present.
Will Win: Darkest Hour
Best Original Song
“Mighty River” from Mudbound
“Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name
“Remember Me” from Coco
“Stand Up for Something” from Marshall
“This Is Me” from The Greatest Showman
Aren: I’m going with the sad song from Coco that made many people cry. Animated films often have luck with the best song category. That being said, The Greatest Showman quietly became a blockbuster over the Christmas break and has charted on the Billboard 100. The songwriters of last year’s La La Land might see themselves repeating with their ode to progressiveness (bafflingly channeled through monster P.T. Barnum), “This Is Me.” If I had a say, I’d give Sufjan Stevens the award for his affecting “Mystery of Love.” I don’t actually like Stevens’ earnest schtick, but this song worked for me in the context of Luca Guadagnino's film.
Will Win: “Remember Me” from Coco
Should Win: “Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name
Anders: Yeah, it could definitely go to “Remember Me” from Coco. That film is quietly beloved among recent Pixar films. But “This Is Me” has a lot of public love too (including Oprah’s endorsement). It’s an anthem of feel-good progressivism, and I could see it winning as an acknowledgement of The Greatest Showman’s popularity and longevity at the box office. I’d give it to Stevens, not only because “Mystery of Love” continues his excellent song writing style from his last album, Carrie & Lowell. I think it’s a great song, and I think it would be fun to see Stevens win.
Will Win: “This Is Me” from The Greatest Showman
Should Win: “Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name
Best Original Score
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Aren: Alexandre Desplat is becoming the safe, obvious choice for Oscar. He’s already got a few in the bag, and he’ll add another trophy to his mantle for his confectionary, underwater-inspired work for The Shape of Water. It’s a decent score, but the worst of the nominees here. I don’t love Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri, but Carter Burwell’s score was one of the most nuanced aspects of McDonagh’s film. John Williams is again doing interesting new things within the Star Wars universe in The Last Jedi and Hans Zimmer has constructed another score of ambient mood with his tense work for Dunkirk. However, no music is as essential or enthralling as Jonny Greenwood’s Phantom Thread score. He has produced many of the great scores of the past decade and has finally bagged a nomination. He ought to win.
Will Win: The Shape of Water
Should Win: Phantom Thread
Anders: Yes, I suspect Desplat will win here for integrating his classical score into the time period of the early 60s in The Shape of Water. But it’s not that memorable, sadly. John Williams is the unsung hero of Star Wars, and say what you will about Disney’s handling of the franchise, Williams is doing bold and memorable work, expanding the palette of Star Wars music while staying recognizably in mode. And I’m also giddy to have Radiohead member Jonny Greenwood final get a nom. I’d love to see him win!
Will Win: The Shape of Water
Should Win: Phantom Thread
Best Short Film, Animated
"Dear Basketball"
"Garden Party"
"Lou"
"Negative Space"
"Revolving Rhymes"
Aren: As always, I just look at which short films (all of which I haven’t seen) are getting the most buzz for Oscar and predict those ones to win. The joke here is that in the midst of the #MeToo movement and during a night when several commenters are likely to take pointed stands against sexual abuse and harassment, Kobe Bryant will win an Oscar.
Will Win: "Dear Basketball"
Anders: I haven’t seen any. The irony of Bryant winning an award during the first #MeToo Oscars would be too much. It will probably happen.
Will Win: "Dear Basketball"
Best Short Film, Live Action
"DeKalb Elementary"
"The Eleven O’Clock"
"My Nephew Emmett"
"The Silent Child"
"Watu Wote/All of Us"
Aren: Just going with consensus, as the school shooting subject matter of this film makes it seem “of the moment,” which the Oscars love to reward.
Will Win: "Dekalb Elementary"
Anders: No idea. I’ll also hedge to the consensus.
Will Win: "Dekalb Elementary"
Best Documentary Short
"Edith+Eddie"
"Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405"
"Heroin(e)"
"Knife Skills"
"Traffic Stop"
Aren: Again, consensus, but "Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405" could also win.
Will Win: "Edith+Eddie"
Anders: For sheer evergreen topicality, I’m going to go with "Traffic Stop."
Will Win: "Traffic Stop"
Best Documentary Feature
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
Faces Places
Icarus
Last Men in Aleppo
Strong Island
Aren: Agnes Varda and J.R. will probably win for their feel-good documentary, Faces Places. It also helps that Varda is a film legend and has never won an Oscar. She’s the oldest-ever nominee and would become the oldest-ever winner. However, the Russian doping scandal-focused Icarus could also win as the political choice. The filmmakers are largely responsible for uncovering Russia’s systematic doping at the Olympics. The Academy often looks to the documentary category to make a statement about global politics.
Will Win: Faces Places
Should Win: Icarus
Anders: I’ve seen none of these. I agree with Aren that the Academy likes to make statements, and coming soon after the Olympics I can see voters going with Icarus. But I’d like to see Varda win, even if I haven’t yet caught Faces Places.
Will Win: Icarus
Best Foreign Feature
A Fantastic Woman
The Insult
Loveless
On Body and Soul
The Square
Aren: The Chilean film about a transgender woman will win because of topicality. It’ll give the Academy the kind of progressive optics they love to have during the telecast. It also helps that the film is critically lauded.
Will Win: A Fantastic Woman
Anders: I suppose A Fantastic Woman could win. It’s just getting a wider release right now and has the topicality. But I could also see them going with the Palme d’Or winner The Square. I haven’t seen any, so I’m just going off the buzz.
Will Win: A Fantastic Woman
Best Animated Feature
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent
Aren: Pixar or Disney almost always wins these, which is disappointing considering that there is always a smaller animated film that deserves the big prize and could use the exposure the win would bring with it. This year, The Breadwinner is that small film that deserves the big prize. I have nothing against Pixar, but at some point, this category is a farce if they keep winning over Studio Ghibli, Laika, and Cartoon Saloon.
Will Win: Coco
Should Win: The Breadwinner
Anders: The Boss Baby should win for its incisive portrayal of family life under late-capitalist ideology, where parental love is a zero sum game. (Just kidding: I haven’t seen any of these, and suspect Pixar will win).
Will Win: Coco
Best Production Design
Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Aren: I won’t even argue against the fact that The Shape of Water is a triumph of design. Del Toro’s films have won Best Production Design in the past and his film will win again here for creating a nightmarish, fairy tale version of 1960s America. Blade Runner 2049 ought to win for its incredible vision of a dystopian future, one that is true to Ridley Scott’s original film while also expanding beyond what we see in that film.
WIll Win: The Shape of Water
Should Win: Blade Runner 2049
Anders: I agree, if you’re going to even think about giving The Shape of Water the top award, it is because it has dazzled you with how it looks and how it realizes its heightened vision of 1963 Baltimore. But for my money, Blade Runner 2049 created a sense of a lived-in future, offering a terrifying vision of both the future of the 1982 film and incorporating an all-too-real extrapolation of our own world. It’s simply a stunning work of design.
Will Win: The Shape of Water
Should Win: Blade Runner 2049